METCALFE, MARGARET
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4GU00021- Internal id
2778ce1b-a217-42e1-9720-564914a91715- Status
- challenger
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $9,293 | $11,580 | $0 | $0 | $1,500 |
| 2014 | $58,178 | $55,891 | $2,287 | $0 | $6,275 |
Elections
No elections on file.
Committees
- METCALFE CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | METCALFE CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN | β | candidate_committees |