SMITH, ADAM ANDREW
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4KY02063- Internal id
77f8cf2f-5c88-48cb-8eb2-354e092dad13- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), KY-02. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 765,661 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $66,796 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $35,773 |
| Income | In poverty | 14.7% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.7% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.467 |
| Race | White alone | 85.0% |
| Race | Black alone | 5.2% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.1% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 4.6% |
| Race | Two or more races | 5.7% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 4.3% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 93.0% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 2.9% |
| Education | High school or higher | 59.0% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 23.8% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 9.5% |
| Household | Family households | 67.0% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.50 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 27.9% |
| Housing | Median home value | $213,900 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $924 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 70.8% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.1% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.4% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 9.5% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 8.1% |
| Health | With a disability | 17.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 8.6% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 79.2% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.2% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 8.0% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | $12,525 | $12,512 | $95 | $0 | $860 |
Elections
- 2004 general house Β· KY-2 β lost_general
Committees
- ADAM SMITH CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-04 | INTERNATIONAL LONGSHORE AND WAREHOUSE UNION -- β¦ | 24K | $2,500 |
| 2022-04-21 | INTERNATIONAL LONGSHORE AND WAREHOUSE UNION -- β¦ | 24K | $1,500 |
| 2021-05-19 | INTERNATIONAL LONGSHORE AND WAREHOUSE UNION -- β¦ | 24K | $1,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (3)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-04 | INTERNATIONAL LONGSHORE AND WAREHOUSE UNION -- POLITICAL ACTION FUND | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-21 | INTERNATIONAL LONGSHORE AND WAREHOUSE UNION -- POLITICAL ACTION FUND | contributed_to | $1,500 | pas2 | |
| 2021-05-19 | INTERNATIONAL LONGSHORE AND WAREHOUSE UNION -- POLITICAL ACTION FUND | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | ADAM SMITH CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees |