YOUNG, GEOFFREY M

D · house

FEC candidate id: H4KY06163
Internal id: 871cf9e1-2abc-4f57-b08d-aa437e3a4cef
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), KY-03. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	748,522
People	Median age	38
Income	Median household income	$68,047
Income	Per-capita income	$40,938
Income	In poverty	14.8%
Income	Unemployed	5.3%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.478
Race	White alone	62.4%
Race	Black alone	21.4%
Race	Asian alone	3.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	8.8%
Race	Two or more races	10.4%
Origin	Foreign-born	10.1%
Language	Speaks English only at home	87.0%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	6.9%
Education	High school or higher	62.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	36.0%
Education	Advanced degree	15.0%
Household	Family households	57.2%
Household	Avg household size	2.30
Household	Never married (15+)	37.0%
Housing	Median home value	$239,900
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,147
Housing	Single-family detached	63.2%
Housing	Built before 1940	6.4%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.0%
Housing	Vacant units	8.0%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.2%
Health	With a disability	14.7%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	90.7%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.4%
Commute	Drove alone	72.4%
Commute	Public transit	1.6%
Commute	Worked from home	13.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$239,157	$239,131	$27	$28	$36,610
2020	$29,778	$29,778	$4,342	$0	$876
2018	$9,787	$12,047	$0	$0	$1,271
2016	$13,035	$10,775	$2,261	$1	$2,053
2014	$51,259	$71,753	$0	$0	$650

Elections

2014 general house · KY-6 — lost_general
2016 general house · KY-6 — lost_general
2018 general house · KY-6 — lost_general
2020 general house · KY-6 — lost_general
2022 general house · KY-6 — lost_general
2024 general house · KY-3 — lost_general

Committees

GEOFF YOUNG FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
GEOFF YOUNG FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
GEOFF YOUNG FOR KENTUCKY — principal · type H
GEOFF YOUNG FOR KENTUCKY — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-10-25	ENGINEERS POLITICAL EDUCATION COMMITTEE (EPEC)/…	24K	$-5,000
2022-08-15	ENGINEERS POLITICAL EDUCATION COMMITTEE (EPEC)/…	24K	$5,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (2)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
2022-10-25	ENGINEERS POLITICAL EDUCATION COMMITTEE (EPEC)/INTERNATIONAL UNION OF OPERATING ENGINEERS	contributed_to	$-5,000		pas2
2022-08-15	ENGINEERS POLITICAL EDUCATION COMMITTEE (EPEC)/INTERNATIONAL UNION OF OPERATING ENGINEERS	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2

Outbound (4)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	principal_candidate_of	GEOFF YOUNG FOR KENTUCKY	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	GEOFF YOUNG FOR CONGRESS	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	GEOFF YOUNG FOR KENTUCKY	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	GEOFF YOUNG FOR CONGRESS	—	candidate_committees

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