NOBLE, ERNIE
L Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4MT01116- Internal id
be50cb53-6952-4556-875c-e1b502d17b6c- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MT-01. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 564,861 |
| People | Median age | 40 |
| Income | Median household income | $73,598 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $43,045 |
| Income | In poverty | 11.4% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.4% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.475 |
| Race | White alone | 86.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 0.3% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.0% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 4.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.9% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 2.8% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 95.6% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 1.7% |
| Education | High school or higher | 64.0% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 38.8% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 14.1% |
| Household | Family households | 59.2% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.36 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 32.0% |
| Housing | Median home value | $466,200 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,174 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 67.7% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.6% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.0% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 13.9% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 8.6% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 90.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 69.8% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 14.3% |
Elections
- 2024 general house Β· MT-1 β lost_general
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 15.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.