THOMAS, MARK W
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4NY27100- Internal id
64392515-707f-4b4f-b812-1219aa3b0711- Status
- challenger
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $5,000 | $0 |
| 2012 | $0 | $612 | $0 | $5,000 | $0 |
| 2010 | $0 | $1,148 | $612 | $5,000 | $0 |
| 2008 | $0 | $1,080 | $1,760 | $5,000 | $0 |
| 2006 | $5,774 | $5,551 | $2,840 | $5,000 | $200 |
| 2004 | $81,125 | $78,508 | $2,616 | $9,500 | $63,006 |
Elections
- 2004 general house Β· NY-27 β lost_general
Committees
- MARK THOMAS FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | MARK THOMAS FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |