SMITH, WILLIAM A JR
R Β· house
Sign in to add to a watchlist β
- FEC candidate id
H4NY29122- Internal id
0dcf509b-a2b2-48a5-aa35-0827566609fe- Status
- open seat
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | $10,540 | $10,540 | $0 | $0 | $10,000 |
Elections
- 2004 general house Β· NY-29 β lost_general
Committees
- BILL SMITH FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | BILL SMITH FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |