O'BRIEN, MICHAEL
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4PA10088- Internal id
37f01c7e-4f58-4670-91ee-9b381cb98fa8- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), PA-10. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 779,640 |
| People | Median age | 40 |
| Income | Median household income | $81,964 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $43,355 |
| Income | In poverty | 10.0% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.3% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.439 |
| Race | White alone | 72.8% |
| Race | Black alone | 10.6% |
| Race | Asian alone | 4.9% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 10.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 7.6% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 7.8% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 87.6% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 6.0% |
| Education | High school or higher | 67.6% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 34.7% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 13.3% |
| Household | Family households | 63.4% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.40 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 32.1% |
| Housing | Median home value | $249,100 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,217 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 56.0% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.4% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.4% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 4.5% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.3% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 91.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.7% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 71.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.9% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 16.1% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0 | $3,364 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024 | $794,912 | $791,548 | $3,364 | $0 | $738,473 |
Elections
- 2024 general house Β· PA-10 β lost_general
Committees
- MIKE O'BRIEN FOR PA β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-10 | SMART TD PAC | 24K | $-5,000 |
| 2025-03-24 | DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY ACTION (DMA PAC) | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2025-03-13 | BROTHERHOOD OF LOCOMOTIVE ENGINEERS & TRAINMEN β¦ | 24K | $-1,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (3)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-10 | SMART TD PAC | contributed_to | $-5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2025-03-24 | DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY ACTION (DMA PAC) | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2025-03-13 | BROTHERHOOD OF LOCOMOTIVE ENGINEERS & TRAINMEN PAC FUND | contributed_to | $-1,000 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | MIKE O'BRIEN FOR PA | β | candidate_committees |