REGUNBERG, AARON

D · house

FEC candidate id: H4RI01216
Internal id: c1d74bf2-1df1-4a72-a49f-8e3300828a6a
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), RI-01. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	546,488
People	Median age	40
Income	Median household income	$82,508
Income	Per-capita income	$46,263
Income	In poverty	12.1%
Income	Unemployed	5.9%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.475
Race	White alone	65.5%
Race	Black alone	6.7%
Race	Asian alone	3.7%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	19.9%
Race	Two or more races	14.1%
Origin	Foreign-born	18.2%
Language	Speaks English only at home	72.1%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	15.5%
Education	High school or higher	64.4%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	38.1%
Education	Advanced degree	15.8%
Household	Family households	60.1%
Household	Avg household size	2.37
Household	Never married (15+)	38.9%
Housing	Median home value	$417,000
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,325
Housing	Single-family detached	47.9%
Housing	Built before 1940	6.7%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.5%
Housing	Vacant units	7.9%
Service	Veterans (18+)	4.9%
Health	With a disability	14.1%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	90.8%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	7.0%
Commute	Drove alone	70.4%
Commute	Public transit	2.2%
Commute	Worked from home	13.0%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$170	$10,340	$3,189	$58,217	$0
2024	$796,444	$783,085	$13,359	$58,217	$675,469

Elections

2023 general house · RI-1 — running

Committees

AARON REGUNBERG FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2024	$551,140	$81,000	13

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2023-09-01	PROGRESS RHODE ISLAND	support	$6,250	Digital Ad buy
2023-08-29	COMMITTEE FOR A BETTER RHODE ISLAND	oppose	$15,000	TV Production - Risk
2023-08-29	BLUE AMERICA PAC INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMIT…	support	$1,050	Internet Ads
2023-08-28	COMMITTEE FOR A BETTER RHODE ISLAND	oppose	$66,000	TV Media - 'Risk'
2023-08-28	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	support	$100,000	TV Ads
2023-08-23	MEDICARE FOR ALL	support	$25,000	Digital Advertising
2023-08-18	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	support	$150,000	Digital and TV Ads
2023-08-18	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	support	$150,000	Digital Ads
2023-08-14	PROGRESS RHODE ISLAND	support	$18,160	Direct Mail Printing, Postage and Shipping
2023-08-10	PROGRESS RHODE ISLAND	support	$18,160	Direct Mail Printing, Postage and Shipping
2023-08-08	PROGRESS RHODE ISLAND	support	$18,160	Direct Mail Printing, Postage and Shipping
2023-08-01	PROGRESS RHODE ISLAND	support	$18,160	ESTIMATED: Printing, Postage and Shipping
2023-08-01	PROGRESS RHODE ISLAND	support	$46,200	ESTIMATED: Research

Connected on the graph

Inbound (13)

date	from	type	amount	source
2023-09-01	PROGRESS RHODE ISLAND	supports_independently	$6,250	fec_ies
2023-08-29	COMMITTEE FOR A BETTER RHODE ISLAND	opposes_independently	$15,000	fec_ies
2023-08-29	BLUE AMERICA PAC INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$1,050	fec_ies
2023-08-28	COMMITTEE FOR A BETTER RHODE ISLAND	opposes_independently	$66,000	fec_ies
2023-08-28	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	supports_independently	$100,000	fec_ies
2023-08-23	MEDICARE FOR ALL	supports_independently	$25,000	fec_ies
2023-08-18	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	supports_independently	$150,000	fec_ies
2023-08-18	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	supports_independently	$150,000	fec_ies
2023-08-14	PROGRESS RHODE ISLAND	supports_independently	$18,160	fec_ies
2023-08-10	PROGRESS RHODE ISLAND	supports_independently	$18,160	fec_ies
2023-08-08	PROGRESS RHODE ISLAND	supports_independently	$18,160	fec_ies
2023-08-01	PROGRESS RHODE ISLAND	supports_independently	$18,160	fec_ies
2023-08-01	PROGRESS RHODE ISLAND	supports_independently	$46,200	fec_ies

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	AARON REGUNBERG FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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