COTTER SMASAL, MISSY
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4VA02060- Internal id
27a417aa-32f6-41a7-b783-36f1a1f387ed- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), VA-02. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 787,890 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $93,757 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $47,696 |
| Income | In poverty | 8.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.9% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.433 |
| Race | White alone | 60.2% |
| Race | Black alone | 22.4% |
| Race | Asian alone | 5.4% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 7.9% |
| Race | Two or more races | 9.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 7.6% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 89.8% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 4.1% |
| Education | High school or higher | 62.5% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 38.7% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 14.9% |
| Household | Family households | 68.2% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.52 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 30.3% |
| Housing | Median home value | $377,200 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,647 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 63.1% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 2.0% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.2% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 8.1% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 15.2% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 92.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 5.1% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 75.2% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 13.4% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,124 | $14,070 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024 | $3,250,763 | $3,237,816 | $12,947 | $0 | $2,642,920 |
Elections
- 2024 general house Β· VA-2 β lost_general
Committees
- MISSY FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $90,667 | $0 | 1 |
| 2024 | $892,499 | $592,000 | 61 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | HMP | support | $30,250 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | support | $13,500 | Digital Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | support | $12,167 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | support | $12,167 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | support | $82,750 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | support | $52,500 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | support | $63,501 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | LCV VICTORY FUND | support | $90,667 | Digital Advertising & Production |
| β | CASA IN ACTION PAC | support | $6,688 | Canvassing Service - Estimate |
| β | HMP | support | $42,417 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | support | $30,250 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | support | $52,500 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | support | $52,500 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | support | $10,000 | Digital Production - Estimate |
| β | CASA IN ACTION PAC | support | $1,224 | Staff Time - Canvassing Management - Estimate |
| β | HMP | support | $13,500 | Digital Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | support | $17,615 | Digital Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | support | $18,437 | Digital Production - Estimate |
| β | CASA IN ACTION PAC | support | $1,274 | Door Lit - Estimate |
| 2024-11-04 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | support | $3,000 | Textbanking (Estimate) |
| 2024-11-04 | PROTECT THE VOTE | support | $1,750 | Robo Calls to GOTV; IE-Only Account |
| 2024-11-01 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | support | $96 | Staff Time and Benefits (Estimate) |
| 2024-11-01 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | support | $1,319 | Printing (Estimate) |
| 2024-11-01 | RURAL GROUNDGAME 3X | support | $700 | Print Advertising |
| 2024-11-01 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $1,673 | SMS communications |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-18 | WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC | 24E | $45,500 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (63)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | LCV VICTORY FUND | supports_independently | $90,667 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | supports_independently | $18,437 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | supports_independently | $13,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | supports_independently | $52,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | supports_independently | $82,750 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | supports_independently | $52,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | supports_independently | $13,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | supports_independently | $17,615 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | supports_independently | $30,250 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | supports_independently | $12,167 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | supports_independently | $63,501 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | supports_independently | $42,417 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | supports_independently | $10,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | supports_independently | $52,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | supports_independently | $30,250 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | supports_independently | $12,167 | fec_ies | |
| β | CASA IN ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $1,274 | fec_ies | |
| β | CASA IN ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $6,688 | fec_ies | |
| β | CASA IN ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $1,224 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-02-18 | WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC | contributed_to | $45,500 | pas2 | |
| 2024-11-04 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $3,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-04 | PROTECT THE VOTE | supports_independently | $1,750 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $1,673 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | RURAL GROUNDGAME 3X | supports_independently | $700 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $96 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $1,319 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-29 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $1,739 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-26 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $10,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-24 | LCV VICTORY FUND | supports_independently | $50,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-24 | LCV VICTORY FUND | supports_independently | $50,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-23 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $2,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-21 | WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC | supports_independently | $22,750 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-21 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $3,125 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-20 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $96 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-20 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $145 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-18 | RURAL GROUNDGAME 3X | supports_independently | $2,183 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-18 | STRATEGIC MAJORITY PAC | opposes_independently | $13,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-15 | STRATEGIC MAJORITY PAC | opposes_independently | $579,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-10 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $450 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-10 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $450 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $4 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $81 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-08 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $9,250 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-08 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $9,250 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-08 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $3,125 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-08 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $3,125 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-07 | LCV VICTORY FUND | supports_independently | $54,400 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-07 | LCV VICTORY FUND | supports_independently | $90,667 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-07 | LCV VICTORY FUND | supports_independently | $54,400 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-06 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $505 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-06 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $162 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-06 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $217 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-06 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $68 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-06 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $162 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-06 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $217 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-06 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $505 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-06 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $360 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-06 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $68 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-06 | CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $360 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-02 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $168 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-02 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $125 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-02 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $61 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-17 | LCV VICTORY FUND | supports_independently | $3 | fec_ies |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | MISSY FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |