GEARHEART, MARTY
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4WV03062- Internal id
ed31b06c-8348-4977-b103-69c48760ddb4- Status
- challenger
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | $5,134 | $6,013 | $1,458 | $0 | $1,525 |
| 2006 | $332 | $0 | $332 | $0 | $0 |
| 2004 | $11,905 | $11,570 | $332 | $5,000 | $6,905 |
Elections
- 2004 general house Β· WV-3 β lost_general
- 2008 general house Β· WV-3 β lost_general
- 2010 general house Β· WV-3 β lost_general
Committees
- GEARHEART 08 β principal Β· type H
- SEND GEARHEART TO CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
- WV4MG β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (3)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | WV4MG | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | GEARHEART 08 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | SEND GEARHEART TO CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |