HEIKES, GERALD L
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6AK00268- Internal id
af56c2cc-e1d1-4e44-bf84-43dcdc6ace69- Status
- challenger
Elections
No elections on file.
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $0 | $601,477 | 13 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-08 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | oppose | $14,827 | Media Placement |
| 2024-08-02 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | oppose | $15,352 | Digital Ads |
| 2024-08-02 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | oppose | $15,352 | Digital Ads |
| 2024-07-31 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | oppose | $109,440 | Media Placement |
| 2024-07-31 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | oppose | $109,440 | Media Placement |
| 2024-07-31 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | oppose | $109,440 | Media Placement |
| 2024-07-31 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | oppose | $109,440 | Media Placement |
| 2024-07-30 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | oppose | $5,912 | Media Production |
| 2024-07-30 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | oppose | $38,880 | Radio Ads |
| 2024-07-30 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | oppose | $5,912 | Media Production |
| 2024-07-30 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | oppose | $38,880 | Radio Ads |
| 2024-07-26 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | oppose | $14,302 | Digital Ads |
| 2024-07-26 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | oppose | $14,302 | Digital Ads |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (13)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-08 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | opposes_independently | $14,827 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-08-02 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | opposes_independently | $15,352 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-08-02 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | opposes_independently | $15,352 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-31 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | opposes_independently | $109,440 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-31 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | opposes_independently | $109,440 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-31 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | opposes_independently | $109,440 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-31 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | opposes_independently | $109,440 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-30 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | opposes_independently | $5,912 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-30 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | opposes_independently | $38,880 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-30 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | opposes_independently | $5,912 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-30 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | opposes_independently | $38,880 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-26 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | opposes_independently | $14,302 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-26 | VOTE ALASKA BEFORE PARTY | opposes_independently | $14,302 | fec_ies |