ABATECOLA, BILL
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6AZ03245- Internal id
d953597f-4d30-4bb8-b9f9-9bebf13ae0c7- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), AZ-03. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 815,927 |
| People | Median age | 31 |
| Income | Median household income | $68,202 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $29,529 |
| Income | In poverty | 18.9% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.7% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.443 |
| Race | White alone | 29.3% |
| Race | Black alone | 10.8% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.5% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 63.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 35.4% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 25.0% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 48.0% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 47.1% |
| Education | High school or higher | 48.5% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 20.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 7.8% |
| Household | Family households | 65.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 3.00 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 47.5% |
| Housing | Median home value | $344,000 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,464 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 58.6% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.9% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 9.7% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 6.4% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 3.8% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 87.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 9.6% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 64.4% |
| Commute | Public transit | 2.7% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 13.7% |
Elections
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.