HERNANDEZ, DANIEL

D · house

FEC candidate id: H6AZ07105
Internal id: c27ce035-9924-4ca3-afc1-62536f57061b
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), AZ-07. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	808,224
People	Median age	34
Income	Median household income	$59,811
Income	Per-capita income	$28,647
Income	In poverty	19.0%
Income	Unemployed	6.5%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.447
Race	White alone	39.6%
Race	Black alone	3.8%
Race	Asian alone	2.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	60.2%
Race	Two or more races	34.1%
Origin	Foreign-born	19.7%
Language	Speaks English only at home	52.8%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	43.6%
Education	High school or higher	49.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	22.2%
Education	Advanced degree	8.5%
Household	Family households	64.2%
Household	Avg household size	2.67
Household	Never married (15+)	41.4%
Housing	Median home value	$243,600
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,123
Housing	Single-family detached	59.3%
Housing	Built before 1940	4.1%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	7.0%
Housing	Vacant units	9.0%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.7%
Health	With a disability	13.9%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	89.0%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	8.2%
Commute	Drove alone	70.7%
Commute	Public transit	1.4%
Commute	Worked from home	11.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$1,136,880	$1,136,880	$0	$0	$937,379

Elections

2025 general house · AZ-7 — running

Committees

DANIEL FOR ARIZONA — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2026	$47,790	$10,675	4

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2025-07-02	AMERICAS FUTURE PROJECT PAC	oppose	$10,675	Comparison mailer- Oppose
2025-06-11	SAVE AMERICA FUND	support	$2,009	Barn Signs
2025-05-23	SAVE AMERICA FUND	support	$22,605	Direct Mail
2025-05-08	SAVE AMERICA FUND	support	$23,176	Direct Mail

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2026-01-08	INTERNATIONAL UNION OF PAINTERS AND ALLIED TRAD…	24K	$-5,000
2025-08-05	LA BAMBA PAC	24K	$-5,000
2025-07-02	CARPENTERS LEGISLATIVE IMPROVEMENT COMMITTEE UN…	24K	$5,000
2025-07-01	INTERNATIONAL UNION OF PAINTERS AND ALLIED TRAD…	24K	$5,000
2025-06-29	TRANSPORT WORKERS UNION OF AMERICA POLITICAL CO…	24K	$2,500
2025-06-26	CEMEX INC. EMPLOYEES PAC	24K	$5,000
2025-06-23	NATIONAL APARTMENT ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION…	24K	$5,000
2025-06-23	FORWARD PARTY	24K	$2,500
2025-06-20	EQUALITY PAC	24K	$-5,000
2025-06-20	DMFI PAC	24K	$5,000
2025-06-18	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	24K	$5,000
2025-06-18	JOINT ACTION COMMITTEE FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS	24K	$5,000
2025-06-18	HF SINCLAIR POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (DINO PA…	24K	$1,000
2025-06-18	EQUALITY PROJECT PAC	24K	$2,500
2025-06-18	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF BOILERMAKERS CAMPA…	24K	$5,000
2025-06-17	BUILD POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONA…	24K	$5,000
2025-06-12	RESIST RECLAIM REBUILD PAC	24K	$2,500
2025-06-11	SAVE AMERICA FUND	24E	$2,009
2025-06-11	SALT RIVER VALLEY WATER USERS' ASSOCIATION POLI…	24K	$2,500
2025-06-10	TAKE BACK THE HOUSE PAC	24K	$1,000
2025-06-09	THE MODERATE PAC, INC.	24K	$3,000
2025-06-04	MINEPAC, A POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NA…	24K	$1,000
2025-06-04	LABORERS' INTERNATIONAL UNION OF NORTH AMERICA …	24K	$5,000
2025-06-03	LEE PAC	24K	$1,000
2025-05-21	SAVE AMERICA FUND	24E	$22,605

Connected on the graph

Inbound (50)

date	from	type	amount	source
2026-01-08	INTERNATIONAL UNION OF PAINTERS AND ALLIED TRADES POLITICAL ACTION TOGETHER POLITICAL COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$-5,000	pas2
2025-08-05	LA BAMBA PAC	contributed_to	$-5,000	pas2
2025-07-02	AMERICAS FUTURE PROJECT PAC	opposes_independently	$10,675	fec_ies
2025-07-02	CARPENTERS LEGISLATIVE IMPROVEMENT COMMITTEE UNITED BROTHERHOOD OF CARPENTERS AND JOINERS	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-07-01	INTERNATIONAL UNION OF PAINTERS AND ALLIED TRADES POLITICAL ACTION TOGETHER POLITICAL COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-06-29	TRANSPORT WORKERS UNION OF AMERICA POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2025-06-26	CEMEX INC. EMPLOYEES PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-06-23	NATIONAL APARTMENT ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-06-23	FORWARD PARTY	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2025-06-20	DMFI PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-06-20	EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND	contributed_to	$-5,000	pas2
2025-06-18	EQUALITY PROJECT PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2025-06-18	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF BOILERMAKERS CAMPAIGN ASSISTANCE FUND	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-06-18	JOINT ACTION COMMITTEE FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-06-18	HF SINCLAIR POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (DINO PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2025-06-18	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-06-17	BUILD POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS (BUILDPAC)	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-06-12	RESIST RECLAIM REBUILD PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2025-06-11	SALT RIVER VALLEY WATER USERS' ASSOCIATION POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT COMMITTEE ( SRPPIC)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2025-06-11	SAVE AMERICA PAC	contributed_to	$2,009	pas2
2025-06-11	SAVE AMERICA PAC	supports_independently	$2,009	fec_ies
2025-06-10	TAKE BACK THE HOUSE PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2025-06-09	THE MODERATE PAC, INC.	contributed_to	$3,000	pas2
2025-06-04	MINEPAC, A POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL MINING ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2025-06-04	LABORERS' INTERNATIONAL UNION OF NORTH AMERICA (LIUNA) PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-06-03	LEE PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2025-05-23	SAVE AMERICA PAC	supports_independently	$22,605	fec_ies
2025-05-21	SAVE AMERICA PAC	contributed_to	$22,605	pas2
2025-05-20	THE CENTER FOR FREETHOUGHT EQUALITY PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2025-05-20	HONOR PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2025-05-14	INTERNATIONAL UNION OF OPERATING ENGINEERS LOCAL NO. 12 FEDERAL PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-05-12	AMERICAN DENTAL ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-05-08	SAVE AMERICA PAC	supports_independently	$23,176	fec_ies
2025-05-08	SAVE AMERICA PAC	contributed_to	$23,175	pas2
2025-05-06	RESISTANCE PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2025-05-02	WILL ROLLINS FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2025-04-30	EQUALITY PROJECT PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2025-04-28	ABLE DEMS PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2025-04-24	RESIST RECLAIM REBUILD PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2025-04-23	RESISTANCE PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2025-04-14	BROTHERHOOD OF LOCOMOTIVE ENGINEERS & TRAINMEN PAC FUND	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2025-04-09	SOUTHWEST GAS CORPORATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-03-31	SMART TD PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-03-31	LA BAMBA PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-03-28	LGBTQ VICTORY FUND FEDERAL PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-03-27	LA BAMBA PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-03-27	EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-03-27	EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-03-26	STORM PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2025-03-25	NO VOTE LEFT BEHIND	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	DANIEL FOR ARIZONA	—		candidate_committees

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