CONAWAY, ROBERT DEAN
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6CA40234- Internal id
1e02e36d-20d0-4e51-b6b4-bc20da7aab8c- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-08. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 752,539 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $97,897 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $44,243 |
| Income | In poverty | 11.1% |
| Income | Unemployed | 7.2% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.441 |
| Race | White alone | 27.5% |
| Race | Black alone | 13.9% |
| Race | Asian alone | 18.4% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 36.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 18.0% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 29.1% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 56.8% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 26.7% |
| Education | High school or higher | 53.9% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 30.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 10.2% |
| Household | Family households | 70.2% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.87 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 38.0% |
| Housing | Median home value | $642,200 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $2,157 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 67.3% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 8.3% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 7.5% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 4.0% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 5.1% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 93.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 4.2% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 66.4% |
| Commute | Public transit | 4.8% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 13.2% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $43 | $47 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2016 | $804 | $798 | $7 | $703 | $0 |
| 2014 | $5,919 | $6,104 | $9 | $1,103 | $2,742 |
| 2006 | $24 | $24 | $272 | $272 | $0 |
| 2004 | $1,605 | $1,861 | $272 | $272 | $976 |
| 2002 | $7,238 | $6,995 | $528 | $0 | $5,193 |
| 2000 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 1998 | $5,912 | $7,017 | $0 | $0 | $4,720 |
| 1996 | $13,808 | $12,357 | $1,566 | $350 | $5,637 |
Elections
- 1996 general house Β· CA-40 β lost_general
- 1998 general house Β· CA-40 β lost_general
- 2002 general house Β· CA-25 β lost_general
- 2004 general house Β· CA-25 β lost_general
- 2014 general house Β· CA-8 β lost_general
Committees
- BOB CONAWAY FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
- COMMITTEE TO ELECT ROBERT CONAWAY β principal Β· type H
- COMMITTEE TO ELECT ROBERT D CONAWAY β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (3)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | COMMITTEE TO ELECT ROBERT D CONAWAY | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | COMMITTEE TO ELECT ROBERT CONAWAY | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | BOB CONAWAY FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |