MORGAN, GUY
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6IA02245- Internal id
8c17dc6a-93e5-4ad3-9a1d-31aff8d83a6a- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), IA-02. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 795,370 |
| People | Median age | 40 |
| Income | Median household income | $73,764 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $40,483 |
| Income | In poverty | 10.4% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.4% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.440 |
| Race | White alone | 87.2% |
| Race | Black alone | 4.0% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 4.1% |
| Race | Two or more races | 5.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 4.1% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 93.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 2.5% |
| Education | High school or higher | 61.4% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 29.2% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 9.6% |
| Household | Family households | 61.9% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.32 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 30.9% |
| Housing | Median home value | $197,900 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $912 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 74.8% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.8% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.4% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 8.9% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 77.1% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.4% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 11.2% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4,834 | $3,214 | $1,620 | $0 | $2,322 |
Elections
- 2026 general house Β· IA-2 β running
Committees
- VOTE FOR YOUR GUY β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | VOTE FOR YOUR GUY | β | candidate_committees |