UPTON, FREDERICK STEPHEN
R · house · bioguide U000031
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- FEC candidate id
H6MI04113- Internal id
30477409-c56a-4954-94d6-031db606d39d- Status
- incumbent
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MI-06. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 771,301 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $97,063 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $53,490 |
| Income | In poverty | 10.1% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.6% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.462 |
| Race | White alone | 70.1% |
| Race | Black alone | 9.8% |
| Race | Asian alone | 10.8% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 5.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 7.6% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 13.6% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 83.8% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 2.8% |
| Education | High school or higher | 70.2% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 52.5% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 25.6% |
| Household | Family households | 62.2% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.42 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 35.2% |
| Housing | Median home value | $349,300 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,440 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 60.1% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.6% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.1% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 5.4% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 4.7% |
| Health | With a disability | 10.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 94.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 3.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 65.9% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.9% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 21.4% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $1,755,169 | $1,409,451 | $533,594 | $0 | $762,950 |
| 2020 | $3,646,564 | $3,494,801 | $187,875 | $0 | $1,522,229 |
| 2018 | $3,123,456 | $3,580,576 | $36,112 | $0 | $1,161,194 |
| 2016 | $2,985,193 | $2,546,884 | $493,232 | $0 | $840,703 |
| 2014 | $3,926,018 | $3,941,684 | $54,922 | $49,270 | $994,179 |
| 2012 | $4,129,538 | $4,724,798 | $70,588 | $0 | $1,317,657 |
| 2010 | $2,014,321 | $2,083,790 | $665,848 | $0 | $613,784 |
| 2008 | $1,413,950 | $1,527,593 | $735,317 | $0 | $521,060 |
| 2006 | $1,237,454 | $972,302 | $848,960 | $0 | $533,716 |
| 2004 | $1,100,830 | $678,688 | $583,808 | $0 | $466,742 |
| 2002 | $1,231,900 | $1,573,679 | $161,584 | $0 | $597,351 |
| 2000 | $771,231 | $620,512 | $503,364 | $0 | $385,696 |
| 1998 | $658,332 | $600,617 | $352,643 | $0 | $328,956 |
| 1996 | $625,329 | $399,520 | $294,930 | $0 | $349,456 |
| 1994 | $537,130 | $575,406 | $69,123 | $0 | $305,398 |
| 1992 | $432,851 | $367,596 | $107,399 | $0 | $275,665 |
| 1990 | $445,881 | $503,164 | $42,144 | $800 | $274,857 |
| 1988 | $422,884 | $323,829 | $99,428 | $38,789 | $255,317 |
| 1986 | $383,041 | $382,663 | $377 | $78,502 | $0 |
Elections
- 1986 general house · MI-4 — won
- 1988 general house · MI-4 — won
- 1990 general house · MI-4 — won
- 1992 general house · MI-6 — won
- 1994 general house · MI-6 — won
- 1996 general house · MI-6 — won
- 1998 general house · MI-6 — won
- 2000 general house · MI-6 — won
- 2002 general house · MI-6 — won
- 2004 general house · MI-6 — won
- 2006 general house · MI-6 — won
- 2008 general house · MI-6 — won
- 2010 general house · MI-6 — won
- 2012 general house · MI-6 — won
- 2014 general house · MI-6 — won
- 2016 general house · MI-6 — won
- 2018 general house · MI-6 — won
- 2020 general house · MI-6 — won
- 2022 general house · MI-6 — won
Committees
- CAMP UPTON VICTORY COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type H
- MURKOWSKI UPTON VICTORY COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type H
- UP TO US — principal · type N
- UP TO US — independent · type N
- UPTON VICTORY COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type N
- UPTON VICTORY COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type N
Recent votes
No votes on file.
Sponsored & cosponsored bills
No sponsorships on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 99.0%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| incumbent | +78.0% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $0 | $16,250 | 2 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-02 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | oppose | $6,250 | Digital Advertising |
| 2021-05-28 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | oppose | $10,000 | Digital Advertising |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
Outbound (6)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | independent_committee_of | UP TO US | — | candidate_committees | |
| — | joint_fundraising_committee_of | MURKOWSKI UPTON VICTORY COMMITTEE | — | candidate_committees | |
| — | joint_fundraising_committee_of | CAMP UPTON VICTORY COMMITTEE | — | candidate_committees | |
| — | joint_fundraising_committee_of | UPTON VICTORY COMMITTEE | — | candidate_committees | |
| — | joint_fundraising_committee_of | UPTON VICTORY COMMITTEE | — | candidate_committees | |
| — | principal_candidate_of | UP TO US | — | candidate_committees |