ELLISON, KEITH MAURICE
D Β· house Β· bioguide E000288
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- FEC candidate id
H6MN05183- Internal id
2020bef9-1706-42ed-8c84-f48d5e1830df- Status
- incumbent
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MN-05. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 707,022 |
| People | Median age | 35 |
| Income | Median household income | $83,858 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $52,019 |
| Income | In poverty | 13.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.5% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.480 |
| Race | White alone | 61.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 17.4% |
| Race | Asian alone | 5.4% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 10.6% |
| Race | Two or more races | 9.9% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 14.0% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 79.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 7.7% |
| Education | High school or higher | 67.7% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 51.1% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 19.3% |
| Household | Family households | 47.0% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.20 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 47.0% |
| Housing | Median home value | $348,600 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,398 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 46.7% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 7.1% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 3.4% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 6.6% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 4.0% |
| Health | With a disability | 11.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 91.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 4.9% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 57.1% |
| Commute | Public transit | 5.0% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 24.3% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $52,146 | $59,075 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2018 | $2,604,027 | $3,086,807 | $6,929 | $0 | $2,241,703 |
| 2016 | $2,799,429 | $2,472,468 | $489,709 | $0 | $2,398,982 |
| 2014 | $2,090,932 | $1,984,754 | $162,748 | $0 | $1,729,661 |
| 2012 | $2,053,544 | $2,160,554 | $56,570 | $0 | $1,662,474 |
| 2010 | $1,397,497 | $1,295,839 | $163,579 | $0 | $1,049,920 |
| 2008 | $1,529,450 | $1,476,448 | $61,922 | $0 | $1,184,058 |
| 2006 | $795,050 | $786,130 | $8,920 | $0 | $558,772 |
Elections
- 2006 general house Β· MN-5 β won
- 2008 general house Β· MN-5 β won
- 2010 general house Β· MN-5 β won
- 2012 general house Β· MN-5 β won
- 2014 general house Β· MN-5 β won
- 2016 general house Β· MN-5 β won
- 2018 general house Β· MN-5 β lost_general
Committees
- ELLISON FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
- JARED POLIS VICTORY FUND 2012 β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- PROGRESSIVES WIN 2012 β joint_fundraising Β· type N
Recent votes
No votes on file.
Sponsored & cosponsored bills
No sponsorships on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 99.0%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| incumbent | +78.0% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (3)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | JARED POLIS VICTORY FUND 2012 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | PROGRESSIVES WIN 2012 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | ELLISON FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |