GRAY, HARTZELL
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6MO05247- Internal id
01be01da-9c18-429c-a56d-87541bbd6df7- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MO-04. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 782,304 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $67,043 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $34,631 |
| Income | In poverty | 13.0% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.0% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.438 |
| Race | White alone | 85.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 4.3% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.1% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 5.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 7.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 2.7% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 94.7% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 2.5% |
| Education | High school or higher | 60.1% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 25.2% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 9.0% |
| Household | Family households | 65.5% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.50 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 28.4% |
| Housing | Median home value | $220,200 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $966 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 73.4% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.3% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.9% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 15.2% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 9.2% |
| Health | With a disability | 16.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 87.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 9.3% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 75.6% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 10.3% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $167,961 | $140,631 | $27,330 | $5,143 | $166,959 |
Elections
- 2026 general house Β· MO-4 β running
Committees
- HARTZELL FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | FREE AND FAIR DEMOCRACY PAC | 24K | $1,000 |
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee HARTZELL FOR CONGRESS.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RHODES, JEAN | RHODES RIVER RANCH Β· HORSE BREEDER | SEATTLE, WA | 1 | $250 |
| GARTH, GRETCHEN V. | N/A Β· RETIRED | KENMORE, WA | 1 | $250 |
| LAPSLEY, MURIEL | DIAL SENIOR LIVING Β· REGISTERED NURSE | LEES SUMMIT, MO | 1 | $128 |
| BURKE, MICHAEL | N/A Β· RETIRED | REDONDO BEACH, CA | 1 | $100 |
| JOSS, STEVE | N/A Β· NOT EMPLOYED | KANSAS CITY, MO | 1 | $100 |
| CHANNON, MARY ELLEN | OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE Β· ESL INSTRUCTOR | CHICAGO, IL | 2 | $55 |
| PIGNERI, ROCCO | DATALIGN ADVISORY, INC. Β· SENIOR SOFTWARE ENGINEER | SOMERVILLE, MA | 1 | $50 |
| WHITESCARVER, CRYSTAL | N/A Β· NOT EMPLOYED | TAMPA, FL | 1 | $50 |
| SIVAN, HAGITH | N/A Β· NOT EMPLOYED | LAWRENCE, KS | 1 | $34 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (1)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | FREE AND FAIR DEMOCRACY PAC | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | HARTZELL FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |