SMULLEN, ROBERT

R · house

FEC candidate id: H6NY21215
Internal id: b3f21221-01b1-4326-901f-3165fbb6107c
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-21. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	770,419
People	Median age	42
Income	Median household income	$70,983
Income	Per-capita income	$38,135
Income	In poverty	13.1%
Income	Unemployed	4.4%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.441
Race	White alone	89.7%
Race	Black alone	2.3%
Race	Asian alone	1.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	3.8%
Race	Two or more races	4.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	3.3%
Language	Speaks English only at home	94.4%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	1.9%
Education	High school or higher	59.6%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	26.2%
Education	Advanced degree	11.3%
Household	Family households	61.9%
Household	Avg household size	2.27
Household	Never married (15+)	31.4%
Housing	Median home value	$180,600
Housing	Median gross rent	$973
Housing	Single-family detached	70.4%
Housing	Built before 1940	5.6%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.4%
Housing	Vacant units	20.3%
Service	Veterans (18+)	8.0%
Health	With a disability	16.4%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	88.6%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	8.7%
Commute	Drove alone	76.5%
Commute	Public transit	0.4%
Commute	Worked from home	9.2%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$1,177,511	$213,537	$963,973	$1,000,000	$161,797

Elections

2026 general house · NY-21 — running

Committees

ROBERT SMULLEN FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2026	$95,504	$0	4

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2026-04-20	PATRIOTIC FUND, INC.	support	$23,876	DIRECT MAIL
2026-04-14	PATRIOTIC FUND, INC.	support	$23,876	DIRECT MAIL
2026-04-06	PATRIOTIC FUND, INC.	support	$23,876	DIRECT MAIL
2026-03-31	PATRIOTIC FUND, INC.	support	$23,876	DIRECT MAIL

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2026-03-20	THE GUARDIAN FUND	24K	$1,000
2026-02-09	CROSSPARTISAN PAC II	24K	$2,500

Connected on the graph

Inbound (6)

date	from	type	amount	source
2026-04-20	PATRIOTIC FUND, INC.	supports_independently	$23,876	fec_ies
2026-04-14	PATRIOTIC FUND, INC.	supports_independently	$23,876	fec_ies
2026-04-06	PATRIOTIC FUND, INC.	supports_independently	$23,876	fec_ies
2026-03-31	PATRIOTIC FUND, INC.	supports_independently	$23,876	fec_ies
2026-03-20	GUARDIAN POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2026-02-09	CROSSPARTISAN PAC II	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	ROBERT SMULLEN FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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