CAVALLO-CAMPISI, PILAR MARIE MS

R · house

FEC candidate id: H6PA36013
Internal id: 24844f4f-aa37-4305-830a-89c52d9af5cd
Status: challenger

Elections

2026 general house · PA-36 — running

Committees

PILAR FOR PA — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	PILAR FOR PA	—		candidate_committees

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