NOGALES-MOLINELLI, MARIANA
OTHER Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6PR01031- Internal id
a58ee586-701f-4748-9b43-de9fcadfc3b8- Status
- open seat
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $0 | $0 | $366 | $715 | $0 |
| 2016 | $2,452 | $2,003 | $366 | $715 | $1,705 |
Elections
No elections on file.
Committees
- COMITE DE CAMPA?A MARIANA NOGALES β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 10.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | COMITE DE CAMPA?A MARIANA NOGALES | β | candidate_committees |