ABDNOR, JAMES

R · house

FEC candidate id: H6SD02024
Internal id: 9e6931c6-0568-41af-9dbc-1975f208b1da
Status: incumbent

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
1980	$1,814,124	$1,801,653	$0	$0	$0

Elections

1980 general house · SD-2 — running

Committees

No committees on file.

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 99.0%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
incumbent	+78.0%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

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