STAHL, BRIAN

R · house

FEC candidate id: H6TX06229
Internal id: b5dd1800-c620-43f7-b980-d1549fb6cd16
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TX-06. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	793,946
People	Median age	36
Income	Median household income	$79,905
Income	Per-capita income	$35,515
Income	In poverty	11.7%
Income	Unemployed	4.7%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.433
Race	White alone	52.3%
Race	Black alone	14.1%
Race	Asian alone	3.6%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	34.9%
Race	Two or more races	18.1%
Origin	Foreign-born	17.4%
Language	Speaks English only at home	68.3%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	26.5%
Education	High school or higher	54.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	26.3%
Education	Advanced degree	8.7%
Household	Family households	73.4%
Household	Avg household size	2.89
Household	Never married (15+)	31.9%
Housing	Median home value	$277,000
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,480
Housing	Single-family detached	67.2%
Housing	Built before 1940	2.5%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	5.2%
Housing	Vacant units	8.6%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.0%
Health	With a disability	12.0%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	90.2%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	7.6%
Commute	Drove alone	75.2%
Commute	Public transit	0.3%
Commute	Worked from home	11.4%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$189,021	$158,612	$30,409	$0	$183,921

Elections

2026 general house · TX-6 — running

Committees

BRIAN STAHL FOR TEXAS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2026	$13,500	$0	2

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2026-02-26	GATORPAC	support	$10,000	Digital Ads
2026-02-26	GATORPAC	support	$3,500	Media Placement

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2026-02-26	GATORPAC	24E	$3,500
2026-02-26	GATORPAC	24E	$10,000
2026-02-23	GATORPAC	24K	$5,000
2026-01-15	PROJECTHEALTHSOLUTIONS PAC - PHSPAC	24K	$2,000

Top individual donors (2026 cycle)

Via this candidate's principal committee BRIAN STAHL FOR TEXAS.

Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.

Donor	Employer / occupation	City, ST	Gifts	Total
WILKINSON, E.G.	—	TUCSON, AZ	1	$1,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (6)

date	from	type	amount	source
2026-02-26	GATORPAC	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2026-02-26	GATORPAC	supports_independently	$3,500	fec_ies
2026-02-26	GATORPAC	contributed_to	$3,500	pas2
2026-02-26	GATORPAC	contributed_to	$10,000	pas2
2026-02-23	GATORPAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-01-15	PROJECTHEALTHSOLUTIONS PAC - PHSPAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	BRIAN STAHL FOR TEXAS	—		candidate_committees

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