KARLSRUHER, JESSICA

R · house

FEC candidate id: H6TX21343
Internal id: c2bde3a0-435d-4ad9-9900-ea2b705f255b
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TX-10. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	797,070
People	Median age	36
Income	Median household income	$84,909
Income	Per-capita income	$47,712
Income	In poverty	13.6%
Income	Unemployed	4.2%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.505
Race	White alone	62.1%
Race	Black alone	9.9%
Race	Asian alone	5.5%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	25.7%
Race	Two or more races	14.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	13.0%
Language	Speaks English only at home	77.2%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	16.2%
Education	High school or higher	63.7%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	41.1%
Education	Advanced degree	15.6%
Household	Family households	66.7%
Household	Avg household size	2.54
Household	Never married (15+)	34.1%
Housing	Median home value	$369,600
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,310
Housing	Single-family detached	65.8%
Housing	Built before 1940	1.9%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	3.3%
Housing	Vacant units	10.2%
Service	Veterans (18+)	5.5%
Health	With a disability	11.2%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	89.3%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.5%
Commute	Drove alone	68.6%
Commute	Public transit	0.7%
Commute	Worked from home	18.7%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$197,880	$196,107	$1,773	$9,912	$156,968

Elections

2026 general house · TX-10 — running

Committees

JESSICA K FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2026	$12,000	$0	1

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2026-02-27	CONSERVATIVE FUTURE TEXAS	support	$12,000	Voter Contact Text Messages

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2026-02-27	CONSERVATIVE FUTURE TEXAS	24E	$12,000
2026-02-10	VALUE IN ELECTING WOMEN POLITICAL ACTION COMMIT…	24K	$5,000
2026-01-29	THE COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS POLIT…	24K	$5,000
2026-01-29	THE COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS POLIT…	24K	$5,000
2025-12-22	GULF STATES TOYOTA INC FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION…	24K	$2,500
2025-11-19	FIRST SERVICE CREDIT UNION POLITICAL ACTION COM…	24K	$2,000
2025-11-10	AMERICA'S CREDIT UNIONS PAC OF CREDIT UNION NAT…	24K	$5,000

Top individual donors (2026 cycle)

Via this candidate's principal committee JESSICA K FOR CONGRESS.

Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.

Donor	Employer / occupation	City, ST	Gifts	Total
COMBS, SUSAN	RETIRED · RETIRED	AUSTIN, TX	2	$3,786
TRYBA, DONNA	DONNATRYBACON · BLOGGER	AUSTIN, TX	2	$3,786
JOHNSON, MICHAEL	SELF-EMPLOYED · LOBBYIST	AUSTIN, TX	2	$3,786
MCHUGH, MICHAEL	QUILL ADVISERS · CONSULTANT	WASHINGTON, DC	2	$3,786
JOHNSON, LUCY	SELF-EMPLOYED · INVESTOR	SAN MARCOS, TX	1	$2,582
CRAMER, ROBERT	RETIRED · RETIRED	DALLAS, TX	1	$2,582
PITTS, ELIZABETH	SELF-EMPLOYED · MANAGEMENT	AUSTIN, TX	1	$1,041
GREADY, ROBERT	RETIRED · RETIRED	HOUSTON, TX	1	$1,041
KARLSRUHER, MATT	HIGGINBOTHAM · INSURANCE BROKER	EL PASO, TX	1	$723
ENGELHARDT, BEN	BGE · ENGINEER	AUSTIN, TX	1	$500
JONES, VIKTORIIA	CHRISTIE'S INTERNATIONAL REAL ESTATE · BROKER	MCDADE, TX	1	$500
CLARENCE, RICHARD	VP CLARENCE CO · REAL ESTATE	EL PASO, TX	1	$300
KENNEDY, JAMES	SELF-EMPLOYED · HOMEMAKER	HOUSTON, TX	1	$260
WALA, KELLY	WESTLAKE DERMATOLOGY · REGISTERED NURSE	AUSTIN, TX	1	$260
GONZALEZ, BARBIE	HOMEMAKER · HOMEMAKER	SAN ANTONIO, TX	1	$250
CORNELIUS, DONELLEN	CORNELIUS FINANCIAL ADVISORY PC · CPA	HOUSTON, TX	1	$208

Connected on the graph

Inbound (8)

date	from	type	amount	source
2026-02-27	CONSERVATIVE FUTURE TEXAS	supports_independently	$12,000	fec_ies
2026-02-27	CONSERVATIVE FUTURE TEXAS	contributed_to	$12,000	pas2
2026-02-10	VALUE IN ELECTING WOMEN POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-01-29	THE COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-01-29	THE COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-12-22	GULF STATES TOYOTA INC FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2025-11-19	FIRST SERVICE CREDIT UNION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (FSCU PAC)	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2025-11-10	AMERICA'S CREDIT UNIONS PAC OF CREDIT UNION NATIONAL ASSOCIATION, INC.	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	JESSICA K FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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