OSWALD, DAVID JAMES MR

I · house

FEC candidate id: H6WA38016
Internal id: 0c2ac3d2-d90f-4db2-8937-7c6bcb1cc7d1
Status: challenger

Elections

2026 general house · WA-38 — running

Committees

No committees on file.

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 15.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

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