COX, TERRENCE JOHN (TJ)

D · house

FEC candidate id: H8CA10167
Internal id: 8fe34a83-388c-403d-9fdb-e445b5c0ec6a
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-21. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	758,000
People	Median age	32
Income	Median household income	$64,764
Income	Per-capita income	$26,800
Income	In poverty	21.9%
Income	Unemployed	10.1%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.463
Race	White alone	29.3%
Race	Black alone	4.6%
Race	Asian alone	9.8%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	65.0%
Race	Two or more races	27.1%
Origin	Foreign-born	21.5%
Language	Speaks English only at home	49.5%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	42.0%
Education	High school or higher	42.8%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	17.1%
Education	Advanced degree	5.5%
Household	Family households	72.4%
Household	Avg household size	3.25
Household	Never married (15+)	43.2%
Housing	Median home value	$334,100
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,293
Housing	Single-family detached	66.9%
Housing	Built before 1940	6.4%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	13.6%
Housing	Vacant units	4.9%
Service	Veterans (18+)	3.8%
Health	With a disability	13.6%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	87.3%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	8.9%
Commute	Drove alone	72.7%
Commute	Public transit	1.0%
Commute	Worked from home	8.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2020	$6,095,805	$6,094,653	$55,943	$3,985	$4,247,199
2018	$2,975,996	$2,921,205	$54,791	$238,500	$2,025,097

Elections

2018 general house · CA-21 — won
2020 general house · CA-21 — lost_general
2022 general house · CA-21 — lost_general

Committees

RISING ELECTORATE PAC — principal · type N
RISING ELECTORATE PAC — independent · type N

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2021-12-16	SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNIO…	24E	$7,843
2021-05-19	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	24E	$8
2021-03-23	SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNIO…	24E	$4,985

Connected on the graph

Inbound (6)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
2021-12-16	SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$7,843	24E	fec_pas2
2021-12-16	SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)	contributed_to	$7,843		pas2
2021-05-19	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$8	24E	fec_pas2
2021-05-19	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	contributed_to	$8		pas2
2021-03-23	SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$4,985	24E	fec_pas2
2021-03-23	SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)	contributed_to	$4,985		pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	independent_committee_of	RISING ELECTORATE PAC	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	RISING ELECTORATE PAC	—		candidate_committees

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