MAGOLNICK, MICHAEL HOWARD
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H8FL95018- Internal id
45c72590-874d-46ad-8a85-cec6404a29a6- Status
- challenger
Elections
- 1998 general house Β· FL-95 β running
Committees
- MICHAEL MAGOLNICK FOR YOU β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
1 typed relationship in the influence graph β 0 inbound, 1 outbound, grouped by type.
principal candidate of (1)
| date | dir | entity | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | β | MICHAEL MAGOLNICK FOR YOU | β | candidate_committees |