GAITHER, KEVIN
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H8IL15072- Internal id
f1034bb5-2c33-4f30-8ec9-3ad3b5c19454- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), IL-15. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 746,652 |
| People | Median age | 42 |
| Income | Median household income | $73,993 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $39,675 |
| Income | In poverty | 10.3% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.439 |
| Race | White alone | 90.6% |
| Race | Black alone | 2.9% |
| Race | Asian alone | 0.9% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 3.0% |
| Race | Two or more races | 4.5% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 2.0% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 96.0% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 1.9% |
| Education | High school or higher | 61.1% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 26.1% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 9.1% |
| Household | Family households | 63.4% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.35 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 27.8% |
| Housing | Median home value | $155,600 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $827 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 81.3% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.2% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.4% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 9.8% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.7% |
| Health | With a disability | 15.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 88.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 9.2% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 79.9% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 9.2% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $0 | $0 | $1,611 | $0 | $0 |
| 2020 | $6,315 | $4,781 | $1,611 | $0 | $6,315 |
| 2018 | $53,606 | $53,530 | $76 | $0 | $43,648 |
Elections
- 2018 general house Β· IL-15 β lost_general
- 2020 general house Β· IL-15 β lost_general
- 2024 general house Β· IL-15 β lost_general
Committees
- FRIENDS OF KEVIN GAITHER β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | FRIENDS OF KEVIN GAITHER | β | candidate_committees |