PAULSEN, ERIK MR.

R · house · bioguide P000594

FEC candidate id: H8MN03077
Internal id: 57c90316-6dba-4917-9b5e-cf92327c443a
Status: incumbent

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MN-03. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	708,294
People	Median age	41
Income	Median household income	$109,478
Income	Per-capita income	$62,771
Income	In poverty	6.6%
Income	Unemployed	3.6%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.467
Race	White alone	71.0%
Race	Black alone	9.7%
Race	Asian alone	8.5%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	5.5%
Race	Two or more races	7.5%
Origin	Foreign-born	13.4%
Language	Speaks English only at home	83.4%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	3.9%
Education	High school or higher	68.4%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	51.8%
Education	Advanced degree	18.8%
Household	Family households	65.3%
Household	Avg household size	2.45
Household	Never married (15+)	29.4%
Housing	Median home value	$415,100
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,619
Housing	Single-family detached	58.8%
Housing	Built before 1940	2.1%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.1%
Housing	Vacant units	4.1%
Service	Veterans (18+)	5.3%
Health	With a disability	9.6%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	94.1%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	3.3%
Commute	Drove alone	65.5%
Commute	Public transit	1.6%
Commute	Worked from home	24.1%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2020	$4,306	$287,907	$0	$0	$0
2018	$5,825,348	$5,908,717	$283,601	$0	$2,601,087
2016	$4,954,433	$5,782,425	$366,969	$0	$2,505,856
2014	$3,196,226	$2,695,111	$1,194,961	$0	$1,794,377
2012	$3,113,793	$2,567,483	$693,846	$0	$1,902,400
2010	$2,688,948	$2,575,922	$149,536	$0	$1,821,713
2008	$2,781,440	$2,744,931	$36,509	$0	$1,984,388

Elections

2008 general house · MN-3 — won
2010 general house · MN-3 — won
2012 general house · MN-3 — won
2014 general house · MN-3 — won
2016 general house · MN-3 — won
2018 general house · MN-3 — lost_general

Committees

2008 ROMP III — joint_fundraising · type H
2015 SXSW GOP COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type H
FRIENDS OF ERIK PAULSEN — principal · type H
GARRETT/PAULSEN JOINT COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type H
HOUSE REPUBLICAN FRESHMEN 2009 — joint_fundraising · type N
PATRIOT DAY COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type H
PIONEER PROJECT — joint_fundraising · type H

Recent votes

No votes on file.

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 99.0%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
incumbent	+78.0%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (7)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	PIONEER PROJECT	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	PATRIOT DAY COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	2008 ROMP III	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	2015 SXSW GOP COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	GARRETT/PAULSEN JOINT COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	HOUSE REPUBLICAN FRESHMEN 2009	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	FRIENDS OF ERIK PAULSEN	—	candidate_committees

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