GAW, ROBERT STEVEN
D ยท house
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- FEC candidate id
H8MO09104- Internal id
48c5fca8-fca7-40af-8a2e-ee9812423817- Status
- open seat
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2014 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2012 | $0 | $225 | $430 | $0 | $0 |
| 2010 | $0 | $533 | $1,080 | $100,000 | $0 |
| 2008 | $382,384 | $380,471 | $1,913 | $100,000 | $277,384 |
Elections
- 2008 general house ยท MO-9 โ lost_general
Committees
- GAW FOR CONGRESS โ principal ยท type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 ยท model baseline-v1 ยท base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | ฮ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency ร party ร office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| โ | principal_candidate_of | GAW FOR CONGRESS | โ | candidate_committees |