SPERLING, PAUL
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H8NY11121- Internal id
68a6192c-d947-4b36-bd40-0f77cf5ca8e2- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-11. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 752,901 |
| People | Median age | 41 |
| Income | Median household income | $90,701 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $43,073 |
| Income | In poverty | 13.3% |
| Income | Unemployed | 6.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.467 |
| Race | White alone | 55.0% |
| Race | Black alone | 7.3% |
| Race | Asian alone | 19.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 19.0% |
| Race | Two or more races | 9.9% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 33.2% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 53.6% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 11.7% |
| Education | High school or higher | 64.2% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 36.6% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 14.4% |
| Household | Family households | 70.5% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.80 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 35.0% |
| Housing | Median home value | $718,100 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,769 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 24.4% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 6.0% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 7.9% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 7.6% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 2.5% |
| Health | With a disability | 11.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 91.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.5% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 41.6% |
| Commute | Public transit | 30.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 13.0% |
Elections
- 2018 general house Β· NY-11 β lost_general
Committees
- PAUL SPERLING 2018 β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | PAUL SPERLING 2018 | β | candidate_committees |