BELLAVIA, DAVID GREGORY
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H8NY26087- Internal id
d3bc4459-193b-400d-a828-f37b83d09c61- Status
- challenger
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $0 | $6,505 | $0 | $38,495 | $0 |
| 2018 | $0 | $0 | $6,505 | $45,000 | $0 |
| 2016 | $0 | $0 | $6,505 | $45,000 | $0 |
| 2014 | $0 | $0 | $6,505 | $45,000 | $0 |
| 2012 | $99,628 | $93,123 | $6,505 | $45,000 | $47,465 |
| 2008 | $7,970 | $7,937 | $32 | $0 | $7,970 |
Elections
Committees
- BELLAVIA FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
- FRIENDS OF DAVID BELLAVIA β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | BELLAVIA FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | FRIENDS OF DAVID BELLAVIA | β | candidate_committees |