MCMURRAY, NATHAN

D · house

FEC candidate id: H8NY27176
Internal id: 1098573b-3b4e-4ff2-9c7c-7c67b604fb8c
Status: challenger

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$0	$13,874	$0	$0	$0
2022	$0	$21,409	$13,874	$0	$0
2020	$1,146,889	$1,135,150	$35,282	$0	$1,065,375
2018	$1,387,654	$1,364,110	$23,543	$0	$1,156,983

Elections

2018 general house · NY-27 — lost_general
2020 general house · NY-27 — lost_general

Committees

NATE MCMURRAY FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-10-05	PEACE ACTION PAC/ FKA SANE/FREEZE PAC	24K	$3,000
2022-03-01	INTERNATIONAL UNION OF PAINTERS AND ALLIED TRAD…	24K	$-2,500
2021-03-23	D.R.I.V.E. - DEM, REP, IND VOTER ED (THE PAC OF…	24K	$-2,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (4)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
2022-10-05	PEACE ACTION PAC/ FKA SANE/FREEZE PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$3,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-10-05	PEACE ACTION PAC/ FKA SANE/FREEZE PAC	contributed_to	$3,000		pas2
2022-03-01	INTERNATIONAL UNION OF PAINTERS AND ALLIED TRADES POLITICAL ACTION TOGETHER POLITICAL COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$-2,500		pas2
2021-03-23	D.R.I.V.E. - DEM, REP, IND VOTER ED (THE PAC OF THE INT'L BRHD OF TEAMSTERS)	contributed_to	$-2,000		pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	NATE MCMURRAY FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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