GODFREY, AARON PAUL
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H8OH16090- Internal id
94213dae-e682-440c-ac20-07759baa7aa3- Status
- open seat
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2022 | $150 | $626 | $0 | $0 | $150 |
| 2020 | $60,294 | $60,430 | $476 | $203 | $53,330 |
| 2018 | $9,804 | $9,193 | $612 | $28 | $9,304 |
Elections
- 2018 general house Β· OH-16 β lost_general
- 2020 general house Β· OH-16 β lost_general
- 2022 general house Β· OH-16 β lost_general
Committees
- GODFREY FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | GODFREY FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |