DUDDING, RALPH WAYNE
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H8PA18140- Internal id
177b1df6-74a2-43b3-854c-01e530d94e8f- Status
- challenger
Elections
- 2008 general house Β· PA-18 β lost_general
Committees
- FRIENDS OF WAYNE DUDDING β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
1 typed relationship in the influence graph β 0 inbound, 1 outbound, grouped by type.
principal candidate of (1)
| date | dir | entity | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | β | FRIENDS OF WAYNE DUDDING | β | candidate_committees |