DUNCAN, JOHN J REP. JR.
R Β· house Β· bioguide D000533
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- FEC candidate id
H8TN02069- Internal id
55b4d9fb-aa29-4ba3-b4fd-7f2d6499a284- Status
- incumbent
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TN-02. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 792,639 |
| People | Median age | 40 |
| Income | Median household income | $72,572 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $41,271 |
| Income | In poverty | 12.2% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.6% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.470 |
| Race | White alone | 84.1% |
| Race | Black alone | 5.7% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.7% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 5.8% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.7% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 5.3% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 93.1% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 3.9% |
| Education | High school or higher | 63.5% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 34.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 13.5% |
| Household | Family households | 63.5% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.41 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 29.7% |
| Housing | Median home value | $301,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,174 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 69.4% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.3% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.7% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 9.6% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.1% |
| Health | With a disability | 14.0% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 88.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 8.2% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 76.8% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.4% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 13.3% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $26,795 | $84,466 | $413,644 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024 | $42,860 | $87,301 | $471,315 | $0 | $0 |
| 2022 | $26,927 | $73,101 | $515,756 | $0 | $0 |
| 2020 | $27,993 | $162,218 | $561,930 | $0 | $0 |
| 2018 | $146,053 | $408,983 | $696,155 | $0 | $18,700 |
| 2016 | $382,499 | $509,943 | $959,085 | $0 | $102,245 |
| 2014 | $509,942 | $992,997 | $1,086,529 | $0 | $144,881 |
| 2012 | $650,922 | $548,501 | $1,569,584 | $0 | $149,544 |
| 2010 | $566,844 | $635,488 | $1,467,163 | $0 | $133,199 |
| 2008 | $658,172 | $511,966 | $1,535,807 | $0 | $161,667 |
| 2006 | $731,814 | $569,768 | $1,389,601 | $0 | $274,073 |
| 2004 | $568,336 | $418,313 | $1,228,555 | $0 | $176,009 |
| 2002 | $561,280 | $362,879 | $1,078,532 | $0 | $212,833 |
| 2000 | $583,772 | $342,829 | $880,331 | $0 | $217,563 |
| 1998 | $396,571 | $288,566 | $639,388 | $0 | $138,912 |
| 1996 | $511,712 | $260,818 | $531,384 | $0 | $256,629 |
| 1994 | $255,451 | $200,332 | $280,490 | $0 | $107,887 |
| 1992 | $267,246 | $204,119 | $225,372 | $0 | $93,001 |
| 1990 | $325,691 | $200,935 | $137,716 | $0 | $151,189 |
| 1988 | $448,530 | $435,567 | $12,961 | $0 | $273,103 |
Elections
- 1988 general house Β· TN-2 β won
- 1990 general house Β· TN-2 β won
- 1992 general house Β· TN-2 β won
- 1994 general house Β· TN-2 β won
- 1996 general house Β· TN-2 β won
- 1998 general house Β· TN-2 β won
- 2000 general house Β· TN-2 β won
- 2002 general house Β· TN-2 β won
- 2004 general house Β· TN-2 β won
- 2006 general house Β· TN-2 β won
- 2008 general house Β· TN-2 β won
- 2010 general house Β· TN-2 β won
- 2012 general house Β· TN-2 β won
- 2014 general house Β· TN-2 β won
- 2016 general house Β· TN-2 β won
- 2018 general house Β· TN-2 β lost_general
Committees
- DUNCAN FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
- DUNCAN/HILLEARY CONGRESSIONAL CELEBRATION COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type H
Recent votes
No votes on file.
Sponsored & cosponsored bills
No sponsorships on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 99.0%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| incumbent | +78.0% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-21 | JONES WALKER L.L.P. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | 24K | $1,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (2)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-21 | JONES WALKER L.L.P. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $1,000 | 24K | fec_pas2 |
| 2021-10-21 | JONES WALKER L.L.P. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 |
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | DUNCAN/HILLEARY CONGRESSIONAL CELEBRATION COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | DUNCAN FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees |