CONNOLLY, GERALD EDWARD
D ยท house ยท bioguide C001078
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- FEC candidate id
H8VA11062- Internal id
7d08d0f4-7515-4243-94f9-1e030b8d8cec- Status
- incumbent
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here โ American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), VA-11. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 785,090 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $160,992 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $73,187 |
| Income | In poverty | 5.1% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.0% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.411 |
| Race | White alone | 50.3% |
| Race | Black alone | 8.5% |
| Race | Asian alone | 22.3% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 14.8% |
| Race | Two or more races | 12.8% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 30.7% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 61.8% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 11.1% |
| Education | High school or higher | 78.9% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 68.3% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 34.2% |
| Household | Family households | 70.6% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.74 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 31.8% |
| Housing | Median home value | $731,100 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $2,367 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 44.7% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 0.6% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.8% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 3.3% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.4% |
| Health | With a disability | 7.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 97.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 1.3% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 55.1% |
| Commute | Public transit | 4.0% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 30.3% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $718,796 | $2,582,508 | $1,636,549 | $0 | $335,912 |
| 2024 | $2,538,286 | $2,190,524 | $3,500,261 | $0 | $1,412,164 |
| 2022 | $2,101,439 | $1,840,860 | $3,152,499 | $0 | $1,247,021 |
| 2020 | $2,019,757 | $1,832,941 | $2,891,921 | $0 | $1,069,863 |
| 2018 | $2,078,359 | $1,672,905 | $2,705,105 | $0 | $1,137,095 |
| 2016 | $2,027,734 | $1,137,247 | $2,299,651 | $0 | $1,100,551 |
| 2014 | $1,996,342 | $1,455,123 | $1,409,165 | $0 | $1,011,398 |
| 2012 | $2,241,573 | $1,396,232 | $867,946 | $0 | $1,168,865 |
| 2010 | $2,465,798 | $2,466,046 | $22,605 | $0 | $1,280,623 |
| 2008 | $1,997,497 | $1,974,644 | $22,853 | $0 | $1,342,268 |
Elections
- 2008 general house ยท VA-11 โ won
- 2010 general house ยท VA-11 โ won
- 2012 general house ยท VA-11 โ won
- 2014 general house ยท VA-11 โ won
- 2016 general house ยท VA-11 โ won
- 2018 general house ยท VA-11 โ won
- 2020 general house ยท VA-11 โ won
- 2022 general house ยท VA-11 โ won
- 2024 general house ยท VA-11 โ won
- 2026 general house ยท VA-11 โ running
Committees
- CONNOLLY FOR CONGRESS โ principal ยท type H
- JARED POLIS VICTORY FUND โ joint_fundraising ยท type N
- JARED POLIS VICTORY FUND 2012 โ joint_fundraising ยท type N
- VIRGINIA FRESHMEN VICTORY FUND โ joint_fundraising ยท type H
Recent votes
- 2025-05-20 ยท Cong. 119 ยท house roll 137
NOT_VOTING on SJRES 13 โ A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency of the Department of the Treasury relating to the review of applications under the Bank Merger Act. - 2025-05-20 ยท Cong. 119 ยท house roll 136
NOT_VOTING on HR 1223 โ ANCHOR Act - 2025-05-20 ยท Cong. 119 ยท house roll 135
NOT_VOTING on HRES 426 โ Providing for consideration of the joint resolution (S.J. Res. 13) providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency of the Department of the Treasury relating to the review of applications under the Bank Merger Act; providing for consideration of the joint resolution (S.J. Res. 31) providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Environmental Protection Agency relating to "Review of Final Rule Reclassification of Major Sources as Area Sources Under Section 112 of the Clean Air Act"; and waiving a requirement of clause 6(a) of rule XIII with respect to consideration of certain resolutions reported from the Committee on Rules. - 2025-05-20 ยท Cong. 119 ยท house roll 134
NOT_VOTING on HRES 426 โ Providing for consideration of the joint resolution (S.J. Res. 13) providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency of the Department of the Treasury relating to the review of applications under the Bank Merger Act; providing for consideration of the joint resolution (S.J. Res. 31) providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Environmental Protection Agency relating to "Review of Final Rule Reclassification of Major Sources as Area Sources Under Section 112 of the Clean Air Act"; and waiving a requirement of clause 6(a) of rule XIII with respect to consideration of certain resolutions reported from the Committee on Rules. - 2025-05-20 ยท Cong. 119 ยท house roll 133
NOT_VOTING on HR 1286 โ Simplifying Forms for Veterans Claims Act - 2025-05-19 ยท Cong. 119 ยท house roll 132
NOT_VOTING on HR 1263 โ Strengthening the Quad Act - 2025-05-15 ยท Cong. 119 ยท house roll 131
NOT_VOTING on HR 2240 โ Improving Law Enforcement Officer Safety and Wellness Through Data Act - 2025-05-15 ยท Cong. 119 ยท house roll 130
NOT_VOTING on HR 2255 โ Federal Law Enforcement Officer Service Weapon Purchase Act of 2025 - 2025-05-14 ยท Cong. 119 ยท house roll 129
NOT_VOTING on HRES 352 โ Calling on elected officials and civil society leaders to counter antisemitism and educate the public on the contributions of the Jewish American community. - 2025-05-14 ยท Cong. 119 ยท house roll 128
NOT_VOTING on HR 2243 โ LEOSA Reform Act
Sponsored & cosponsored bills
- cosponsor ยท 2025-02-04 โ HR 924 โ NO BAN Act
- cosponsor ยท 2024-02-15 โ HR 7365 โ VETS Safe Travel Act
- cosponsor ยท 2023-11-13 โ HR 6031 โ Safe Schools Improvement Act
- cosponsor ยท 2023-07-17 โ HR 3238 โ Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act of 2023
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 ยท model baseline-v1 ยท base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 99.0%
| Feature | ฮ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| incumbent | +78.0% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency ร party ร office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $30,744 | $0 | 137 |
| 2022 | $144,445 | $0 | 348 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $27 | Caging and Database Services(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $43 | Leads / Phone Lists(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $54 | PHONEBANK IT/TECH SUPPORT(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $228 | Leads / Phone Lists(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $284 | PHONEBANK IT/TECH SUPPORT(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $43 | Phonebank Payroll Services(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $49 | Caging and Database Services(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $78 | Leads / Phone Lists(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $98 | PHONEBANK IT/TECH SUPPORT(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $196 | Phonebank Long Distance(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $328 | Phonebank Payroll Services(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $380 | Caging and Database Services(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $414 | Leads / Phone Lists(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $753 | PHONEBANK IT/TECH SUPPORT(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $126 | Phonebank Payroll Services(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $143 | Caging and Database Services(Estimate) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $10 | CAGING AND DATABASE SERVICES(ESTIMATE) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $14 | PHONEBANK PAYROLL SERVICES(ESTIMATE) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $15 | LEADS / PHONE LISTS(ESTIMATE) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $27 | PHONEBANK IT/TECH SUPPORT(ESTIMATE) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $43 | CAGING AND DATABASE SERVICES(ESTIMATE) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $59 | PHONEBANK PAYROLL SERVICES(ESTIMATE) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $62 | LEADS / PHONE LISTS(ESTIMATE) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $71 | LEADS / PHONE LISTS(ESTIMATE) |
| โ | SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC | support | $131 | PHONEBANK IT/TECH SUPPORT(ESTIMATE) |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
Outbound (8)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| โ | principal_candidate_of | CONNOLLY FOR CONGRESS | โ | candidate_committees | |
| โ | joint_fundraising_committee_of | VIRGINIA FRESHMEN VICTORY FUND | โ | candidate_committees | |
| โ | joint_fundraising_committee_of | JARED POLIS VICTORY FUND 2012 | โ | candidate_committees | |
| โ | joint_fundraising_committee_of | JARED POLIS VICTORY FUND | โ | candidate_committees | |
| 2025-02-04 | cosponsor_of_bill | HR 924 โ NO BAN Act | โ | cosponsor | sponsorship |
| 2024-02-15 | cosponsor_of_bill | HR 7365 โ VETS Safe Travel Act | โ | cosponsor | sponsorship |
| 2023-11-13 | cosponsor_of_bill | HR 6031 โ Safe Schools Improvement Act | โ | cosponsor | sponsorship |
| 2023-07-17 | cosponsor_of_bill | HR 3238 โ Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act of 2023 | โ | cosponsor | sponsorship |