LUCAS, CONRAD G. MR. II
R Β· house
Sign in to add to a watchlist β
- FEC candidate id
H8WV03105- Internal id
6a057605-80a5-489f-a7fd-f4914169f8bf- Status
- open seat
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $0 | $15 | $475 | $275,007 | $0 |
| 2022 | $0 | $120 | $490 | $275,007 | $0 |
| 2020 | $0 | $65 | $610 | $275,007 | $0 |
| 2018 | $407,288 | $406,613 | $675 | $275,007 | $145,788 |
Elections
- 2018 general house Β· WV-3 β lost_general
Committees
- LUCAS FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | LUCAS FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |