WINTERBOTTOM, THOMAS FRANCIS

D · president

FEC candidate id: P00003244
Internal id: e59e00f0-e773-4295-9272-849f7a38b4aa

Elections

2000 general president — running
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2016 general president — running
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2020 general president — running
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2024 general president · 2024-11-05 — lost_general
2024 general president · 2024-11-05 — running
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2028 general president — running
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Committees

THOMAS F WINTERBOTTOM FOR PRESIDENT — principal · type P
THOMAS WINTERBOTTOM FOR PRESIDENT — principal · type P
THOMAS WINTERBOTTOM FOR PRESIDENT — principal · type P

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (3)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	principal_candidate_of	THOMAS F WINTERBOTTOM FOR PRESIDENT	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	THOMAS WINTERBOTTOM FOR PRESIDENT	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	THOMAS WINTERBOTTOM FOR PRESIDENT	—	candidate_committees

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