VENTURA, JESSE
β Β· president
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- FEC candidate id
P00003418- Internal id
be098a4f-a21c-46c1-b7a6-5321761c5998- Status
- challenger
Elections
- 2000 general president β running
- 2000 general president β running
- 2000 general president β running
- 2000 general president β running
- 2000 general president β running
Committees
- CALIFORNIA DRAFT JESSE VENTURA FOR PRESIDENT COMMITTEE β independent Β· type U
- DRAFT JESSE VENTURA FOR PRESIDENT COMMITTEE β independent Β· type U
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 15.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | independent_committee_of | DRAFT JESSE VENTURA FOR PRESIDENT COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | independent_committee_of | CALIFORNIA DRAFT JESSE VENTURA FOR PRESIDENT COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees |