BAUER, GARY L

R · president

FEC candidate id: P00003491
Internal id: db1e8161-dddf-4805-a343-c6f8a2ee80a5
Status: challenger

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2016	$0	$24	$3,229	$108,558	$0
2014	$0	$68	$3,253	$108,558	$0
2012	$0	$16	$3,321	$108,558	$0
2010	$0	$0	$3,337	$108,558	$0
2008	$5,542	$15,594	$3,337	$108,558	$1,230
2006	$69,189	$59,379	$13,389	$108,558	$15,000
2004	$89,924	$87,451	$3,580	$98,103	$0
2002	$450,948	$520,497	$1,107	$108,580	$148,610
2000	$14,101,678	$13,870,884	$54,233	$538,183	$6,523,349

Elections

2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running

Committees

BAUER FOR PRESIDENT 2000 INC. — principal · type P

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	authored_for	Dobson Policy Center	—		think-tank-publication-author
—	principal_candidate_of	BAUER FOR PRESIDENT 2000 INC.	—		candidate_committees

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