MARTIN, ANDY

R · president

FEC candidate id: P00003731
Internal id: 50f33f4f-0f7e-414b-b3d4-b4c68421b055
Status: challenger

Elections

2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2000 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running

Committees

ANDY MARTIN CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE — principal · type P
GAY REPUBLICANS.ORG — principal · type P

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	GAY REPUBLICANS.ORG	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	ANDY MARTIN CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE	—		candidate_committees

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