HALE, RICHARD ALAN
I Β· president
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- FEC candidate id
P00003764- Internal id
73825fee-3abe-4794-8aca-a0d1cda064bb- Status
- challenger
Elections
- 2000 general president β running
- 2000 general president β running
- 2000 general president β running
- 2000 general president β running
- 2000 general president β running
- 2000 general president β running
Committees
- COMMITTE TO ELECT RICHARD ALAN HALE AND THE NEW DEMOCRACY β principal Β· type P
- LIGHTWAVE OVER AMERICA FOUNDATION β principal Β· type P
- RICHARD ALAN HALE FOR PRESIDENT β principal Β· type P
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 15.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (3)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | RICHARD ALAN HALE FOR PRESIDENT | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | COMMITTE TO ELECT RICHARD ALAN HALE AND THE NEW DEMOCRACY | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | LIGHTWAVE OVER AMERICA FOUNDATION | β | candidate_committees |