SMALLEY, NADIA BAHIA

D · president

FEC candidate id: P00008797
Internal id: 68c88fbd-669a-4ae2-8c56-5421e0734a0c
Status: challenger

Elections

2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running

Committees

NADIA BAHIA SMALLEY FOR PRESIDENT — principal · type P
NADIA BAHIA SMALLEY FOR PRESIDENT 2020 — principal · type P
NADIA BAHIA SMALLEY FOR PRESIDENT 2020 — principal · type P

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (3)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	principal_candidate_of	NADIA BAHIA SMALLEY FOR PRESIDENT	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	NADIA BAHIA SMALLEY FOR PRESIDENT 2020	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	NADIA BAHIA SMALLEY FOR PRESIDENT 2020	—	candidate_committees

pac.dog is a free, independent, non-partisan research tool. Every candidate, committee, bill, vote, member, and nonprofit on this site is mirrored from primary U.S. government sources (FEC, congress.gov, govinfo.gov, IRS) and each state's Secretary of State / election commission — no third-party data vendors, no paywall, no editorial intermediation. Citations to the originating source are on every detail page. Want to partner? Contact us.