SHELLY, PAUL M MR. JR

I · president

FEC candidate id: P00012617
Internal id: 21c67e29-23d0-43a7-b70c-06344da8eed6
Status: challenger

Elections

2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running

Committees

FRIENDS OF PAUL SLUGGO SHELLY JR — principal · type P
THE PEOPLE FOR PAUL SHELLY JR. — principal · type P

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 15.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	THE PEOPLE FOR PAUL SHELLY JR.	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	FRIENDS OF PAUL SLUGGO SHELLY JR	—		candidate_committees

pac.dog is a free, independent, non-partisan research tool. Every candidate, committee, bill, vote, member, and nonprofit on this site is mirrored from primary U.S. government sources (FEC, congress.gov, govinfo.gov, IRS) and each state's Secretary of State / election commission — no third-party data vendors, no paywall, no editorial intermediation. Citations to the originating source are on every detail page.