BERNARD, EMIL IVAN

I · president

FEC candidate id: P00016709
Internal id: c9e6a9dc-4f49-4dfe-9d60-677c4036a9e9
Status: challenger

Elections

2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running

Committees

No committees on file.

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 15.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

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