AYERS, AVERY

I · president

FEC candidate id: P20004479
Internal id: f0dcceca-456f-4a2e-92cd-eecbab18d86b
Status: challenger

Elections

2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running

Committees

FRIENDS OF AVERY AYERS — principal · type P
UTOPIAN POLITICAL PARTY — independent · type N

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 15.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	independent_committee_of	UTOPIAN POLITICAL PARTY	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	FRIENDS OF AVERY AYERS	—		candidate_committees

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