SMITH, JASON
I Β· president
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- FEC candidate id
P20005559- Internal id
cf14a2e7-1253-4057-a5ad-8f56f07bf473
Elections
- 2032 general president β running
- 2032 general president β running
- 2032 general president β running
- 2032 general president β running
- 2032 general president β running
- 2032 general president β running
- 2032 general president β running
- 2032 general president β running
- 2032 general president β running
- 2032 general president β running
- 2032 general president β running
Committees
- SMITH FOR PRESIDENT 2032 β principal Β· type P
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 15.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | CONCRETE REINFORCING STEEL INSTITUTE PAC (REBAR⦠| 24K | $1,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (1)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | CONCRETE REINFORCING STEEL INSTITUTE PAC (REBAR PAC) | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | SMITH FOR PRESIDENT 2032 | β | candidate_committees |