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ALEXANDER-NEAL, MALCOLM

OTHER Β· president

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FEC candidate id
P40009557
Internal id
8304b982-d3ab-45ca-a80b-153e2f0d1a86
Status
challenger

Elections

Committees

No committees on file.

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 15.1%

FeatureΞ” P(win)
Base rate (historical)15.1%

Baseline model (incumbency Γ— party Γ— office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

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