BROWN, TONY MICHAEL

D · president

FEC candidate id: P60017605
Internal id: 3250d439-ae28-421b-9655-47a24a9bbb8c
Status: open seat

Elections

2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running

Committees

IT'S BROWN FOR AMERICA — principal · type P

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	IT'S BROWN FOR AMERICA	—		candidate_committees

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